The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) record surplus transfer to the government has raised hopes among bond traders that the government might reduce its gross borrowing for the current financial year (2024-25/FY25) by up to Rs 1 trillion. The RBI approved a dividend of Rs 2.11 trillion for the central government for 2023-24, marking an increase of roughly 141 per cent from 2022-23 (FY23). In addition, the contingency risk buffer has been raised to 6.5 per cent from the previous 6 per cent.
In previews of Q2FY25 and beyond, industry analysts are expecting a turnaround for IT services. High teens earnings per share or EPS growth is expected for the next two-three financial years. The hopes are backed by deal wins of above $100 billion as at Q1FY25, up 16.6 per cent year-on-year ( Y-o-Y).
The Union government is projected to share about 32 per cent of central taxes with states during the financial year 2024-25 against the 15th Finance Commission's recommendation of 41 per cent. The Revised Estimates (RE) for FY24, too, show a similar share of states in the central taxes at 32 per cent. In absolute terms, however, there has been an increase in the amount devolved to states compared to the Budget Estimates (BE) for FY24 at Rs 11 trillion.
'If it doesn't, it will continue with measures to infuse liquidity, signalling a new cycle,' predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
After some enforced slowdown in offtake during April-May 2024 due to elections, the cement sector is looking at a possible demand rebound which may help it to push up prices. The April'24 offtake was muted while May'24 saw some improvement with a likely 5-6 per cent rise in demand month-on-month (MoM). In June, some price hikes seem to have been taken, which suggests more sustained improvement in demand.
Among the Sensex firms, Larsen & Toubro, UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel, Titan, Bajaj Finance, Wipro, Tech Mahindra and Nestle were the major laggards. Maruti, Power Grid, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, NTPC, HDFC Bank, ITC and IndusInd Bank were the gainers.
'Investors should consider small and midcaps only if they can handle volatility and have a longer investment horizon.'
In a big push to the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme, the government has nearly doubled (increase of 81 per cent) the allocation in five key industry segments from Rs 8,405 crore in the Revised Estimate of FY24 to Rs 15,198 crore in the Interim Budget for FY25. The segments cover over eight PLI schemes, including mobile phones, IT hardware, pharma (PLIs for medical devices, intermediates and pharmaceuticals), food processing, telecom hardware and, auto and auto components. In FY24, DPIIT officials, however, said that the disbursements would be much higher at around Rs 11,000 crore than what has been budgeted for the year.
Net direct tax collection grew 19.54 per cent to over Rs 5.74 lakh crore so far this fiscal on higher advance tax payment by corporate. The first instalment of advance tax, which was due on June 15, rose 27.34 per cent to Rs 1.48 lakh crore. This includes Corporation Income Tax (CIT) at Rs 1.14 lakh crore and Personal Income Tax (PIT) at Rs 34,470 crore.
Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday assumed charge as the Finance and Corporate Affairs Minister for the second consecutive term and is slated to soon present the final Budget for FY '25 that is going to set the tone for the Modi 3.0 government's priorities and direction for Viksit Bharat. Upon her reaching the North Block office, Sitharaman was greeted by Finance Secretary T V Somanathan and other top officials. Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary was also present. Chaudhary assumed charge on Tuesday evening.
The Budget proposals are expected to boost the fortunes of consumer goods and fast-moving consumer goods companies, which have been struggling with poor consumer demand for more than a year. The Budget announcements, such as the increase in standard deduction by Rs 25,000 for income-tax payers and slab revisions, will put more money in their hands, boosting consumer demand. Private consumption is also likely to benefit from a new scheme to offer internships to 10 million youths in the country's top 500 companies.
'We are sure FY25 is going to be better...But to call out that all problems are behind us is a bit early.' 'The underlying business sentiment has not changed significantly.'
Mutual Fund inflows in FY25 have already reached two-thirds of the total inflows seen in the entire FY24, with net inflows standing at Rs 1.3 trillion.
'Like every Budget, this time, too, there is chatter around tinkering with the long-term capital gains tax.' 'Investors may not want to jump into the markets until there is clarity on this front.'
The government does not seem keen on issuing fresh gold bonds given the overall cost and rising gold prices.
...to fund the revenue gap. Of the gross market borrowing of Rs 14.13 trillion estimated for FY25, Rs 7.5 trillion, or 53 per cent, is planned to be borrowed in the first half.
Information technology (IT) companies have been on the road to revival in the past one year. From being the worst-hit sector in 2022 with a loss of 26 per cent, the Nifty IT index closed 2023 with gains of 24 per cent. So far in 2024, the index is up around 7 per cent against the nearly flat Nifty 50 benchmark index. The IT index has been on a continuous decline in the last three sessions.
The company has the largest car park in EVs in India, estimated to be around 170,000 units. As a pilot, it has already started work with used online car marketplace Spinny.
'We now look at divestment as an opportunity for maximising the value of public assets, not necessarily as a short-term resource-raising measure.'
From highways connecting once-remote regions to aviation networks carrying millions, India's infrastructure story is one of transformation.
The fitment committee under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council, comprising central and state officials, has begun a rate rationalisation exercise afresh, checking the possibility of dropping some of the rates, particularly the 12 per cent slab, to achieve a revenue-neutral structure, a senior official with direct knowledge of the matter
With 7 per cent economic growth, India is not creating enough jobs as reflected by the number of applicants for vacant posts in some states, Reserve Bank's former governor Raghuram Rajan said and suggested the government needs to focus on promoting labour-intensive industries to generate employment. Rajan further said some Indians, especially those at upper level, are comfortable and have high incomes, but consumption growth from the lower half of the country has still not recovered to pre-pandemic level.
The central government's fiscal deficit during 2023-24 at 5.6 per cent of the GDP was better than previous estimates of 5.8 per cent on account of higher revenue realisation and lower expenditure, according to official data released on Friday. In actual terms, the fiscal deficit -- or gap between expenditure and revenue -- was Rs 16.53 lakh crore, or 5.63 per cent of the GDP, which grew 8.2 per cent in 2023-24.
Equity markets will take cues from global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, while in the latter part of the week the first quarter earnings from IT majors TCS and HCL Technologies would guide investor sentiments, analysts said. Markets may consolidate after the record rally last week, experts added. "On the domestic front, the Q1 earnings season begins this week. Key companies such as TCS and HCL Technologies will release their earnings on July 11 and 12, 2024, respectively.
Redemptions from systematic investment plan (SIP) accounts scaled a new high of Rs 14,367 crore in July, indicating investors booked profits following back-to-back months of gains in the market. Volatility triggered by Budget announcements also played on investor sentiment. "July 2024 saw a peak in the Nifty, which may have prompted profit-booking among investors nearing the end of their goal tenure.
'The Budget will be positive, continuing on the path of growth taken so far.'
As the results season kicks in, the quarterly earnings numbers of several blue-chip firms -- such as Infosys and Reliance Industries -- along with global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, will determine equity market movement in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic WPI inflation data for June -- scheduled to be announced on Monday -- will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram.
After two months of net outflow, foreign investors turned buyers in June, infusing Rs 26,565 crore in Indian equities, driven by political stability and a sharp rebound in markets. Looking ahead, attention will gradually shift towards the budget and Q1 FY25 earnings, which could determine the sustainability of FPI flows, Vipul Bhowar, Director, Listed Investments, Waterfield Advisors, said.
Inflows into equity mutual funds (MFs) continued their strong momentum in July, despite the market volatility triggered by the Union Budget.
By taking the mutual fund route, investors can take exposure to gilts with small amounts. Over a decade or more, returns from these funds tend to be sound.
'Personal income tax is growing by 27 per cent and most refunds have already been issued.'
'There is also a possibility that Andhra Pradesh may demand a similar package. But as of now, we are only working on a package for Bihar.'
State-owned Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd (ISPRL), which operates India's strategic crude oil storage, will make awards by December to lease around 1 million tons of crude oil storage space (7.3 million barrels) at two of the country's three existing Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs), around a fifth of the total SPR capacity. This will enable the refilling of crude caverns even as escalating hostilities in the Gulf threaten disruptions in crude supplies, two industry sources said.
'Rather than taking a very short-term view on the markets, equity investing should be premised on longer term growth opportunities.'
'Food inflation is important and if that is controlled, then consumption will go up.'
Government departments have been tasked with identifying major goals, which will include annual targets from the financial year 2024-2025 to 2028-2029.
Mortgage finance remains a structural growth opportunity in India with a policy focus on affordable housing, housing shortages, low mortgage penetration, and rising incomes as drivers. Affordable Housing Finance Companies (AHFCs) serve the mass market, low-income segments, which is the least-serviced category, and to operate in this segment, the mortgage provider needs good assessment skills. AHFCs and HFCs have also been increasing exposure in other mortgage segments (loan against property, developer loans among others).
'We have now drastically simplified it, primarily to two rates in long-term capital gains: 20% and the applicable rates. Similarly, in short-term capital gains.' 'For listed shares, there is a slight increase, but for unlisted shares, where indexation benefits are removed, there is a reduction in rates, benefiting unlisted companies, venture capital firms, etc.' 'Similarly, in real estate, wherever returns are higher, the new structure is beneficial. In very few cases, returns are lower, and those are more of an exception.'
'Those satisfied with returns and not expecting further rally could be booking profits and also stopping SIPs.'
'The revenue projection arises out of all sectors doing well and the formalisation of the economy helps in making sure the tax domain gets widened.'
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